🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|