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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.