Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including land Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.